NFL Analysis
9/5/24
11 min read
By Marcus Mosher
It’s hard to believe, but Week 1 is finally here. The season kicks off with the Ravens and the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football and finishes with the 49ers and the Jets on Monday Night Football.
With a full slate of incredible games, here are our thoughts and picks on each matchup. All lines and odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook:
>> READ MORE: Week 1 Power Rankings
Week 1 Expert Picks, Predictions
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -3
Total: 46
The Kansas City Chiefs have had mixed results in the opening game of the season, which makes this a tough game to pick. Kansas City is nearly impossible to defeat at home, especially in primetime. But the Baltimore Ravens have been excellent in Week 1 under John Harbaugh and are a fantastic road team. However, they are just 1-5 against the Chiefs in their last six meetings.
This should be an incredibly close contest between the top two teams in the AFC but expect Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to come through once again.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Ravens 21
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3
Total: 49
The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-point favorites on a neutral site (Brazil), which seems a bit extreme. The last time we saw the Eagles, they were blown out by the Buccaneers in the wild-card round. However, the Eagles have been a fantastic September team under Nick Sirrani, with a record of 6-0 in the first month of the year in the last two seasons.
The Eagles should bounce back in 2024, but the Green Bay Packers are a difficult opponent in Week 1. This game could truly go either way, but given their early-season track record, we will lean toward the Eagles.
Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Packers 23
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants
Spread: Vikings -1.5
Total: 41.5
This is one of the most difficult games to project in Week 1. Daniel Jones is returning from a major knee injury, and it remains to be seen how the offense functions without Saquon Barkley. It also doesn't help that the New York Giants have been terrible in Week 1, going 1-6 in their last seven opening games.
On the other side, Sam Darnold will start for the Minnesota Vikings, hoping to resurrect his career. Neither of these teams is projected to make the playoffs, meaning we could see some high-variance football to start the year. Take the Vikings to get the win on the road in Week 1 in New Jersey.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Giants 20
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Texans -2.5
Total: 49
It took until Week 18 to decide the winner of the AFC South, but the Houston Texans pulled off a close win against the Indianapolis Colts last season to take the division. The Texans are the overwhelming favorites in the division and have the roster to back that up. However, they have struggled recently against the Colts with a 4-10-1 record in their previous 15 meetings.
This will be another tough battle, but with Anthony Richardson lacking experience and injuries galore on defense, we should expect the Colts to struggle on offense out of the gate. This game could go either way but expect the Texans to ultimately win as they have all the pieces to become a juggernaut in the AFC.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 20
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -4
Total: 41.5
Division games in Week 1 tend to get a bit weird, but the talent differential in this matchup is significant. The New Orleans Saints have a far better defense and a more proven quarterback, which tends to matter early in the season. The Saints have to win this game if they want to challenge the Falcons and the Buccaneers for the NFC South.
However, don’t be surprised if this game is close and the Carolina Panthers keep it competitive. The Panthers' new-look offense should be fun to watch, but don't expect it to all come together in Week 1.
Score Prediction: Saints 21, Panthers 20
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -3
Total: 49.5
The Miami Dolphins usually have a big home-field advantage in early September as other opponents can’t handle the heat and humidity of South Florida. However, that won’t be the case in Week 1 with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming to town. With a fully healthy Trevor Lawrence, look for the Jaguars to put up points in Miami.
The Dolphins will be without several key defenders, including Bradley Chubb, and it will take some time for the players to learn Anthony Weaver’s defense. Take the Jaguars in Week 1 to pull off the road upset.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 24, Dolphins 23
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: Bengals -8.5
Total: 40.5
Ja’Marr Chase's status is still up in the air for Week 1, and that will make things far more interesting for the Cincinnati Bengals. New England’s offense doesn’t have a lot of firepower, but it remains excellent on the defense. Expect the Patriots to take away Tee Higgins and force Joe Burrow to go elsewhere with the football.
This is the biggest spread of the weekend but stay as far away from that as possible. The New England Patriots defense and rushing attack should keep this game close, even if they don't win.
Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Patriots 17
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -3
Total: 42
Both teams will be ushering in new quarterbacks, so don’t expect fireworks out of the gate for either offense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a much better defense and played most of their starters in the preseason. Mike Tomlin's team needs to get off to a fast start because of a difficult back-end to their schedule. And facing a quarterback coming off a torn Achilles with a new franchise seems like a favorable matchup.
Expect this to be a close back-and-forth game with both squads leaning on their rushing attacks, but take the Steelers to pull off the road upset in Week 1. Their defense and strong rushing attack should be enough to get it done against the Atlanta Falcons.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Falcons 20
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears -4
Total: 45.5
The Chicago Bears made some major improvements this year, and it wouldn’t shock anyone if they made the playoffs. However, Week 1 games tend to be a bit fluky, and asking a rookie quarterback to perform at a high level right away is a tall task. The Tennessee Titans have a rebuilt offense and playmakers galore.
Don’t be surprised if they find a way to control the clock and steal an early season game on the road. At the very least, consider taking the Titans +4 in Chicago.
Score Prediction: Titans 26, Bears 21
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -6
Total: 48
Only a handful of teams are 6-point favorites or more heading into Week 1, including theBuffalo Bills. However, with the new-look Arizona Cardinals coming to town, this is one of the tougher matchups to predict.
Kyler Murray can win a game single-handedly, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. makes them even more dangerous on offense. Look for a tough battle in Buffalo, but for Josh Allen and the Bills to ultimately prevail.
Prediction: Bills 27, Cardinals 23
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -3
Total: 40.5
The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers split this matchup last year, but these two squads look much different this time. Jim Harbaugh is expected to bring toughness and physicality to the Chargers, while Antonio Pierce is hoping to create the same atmosphere in Las Vegas.
Justin Herbert's health and the Raiders' quarterback play are major storylines going into this contest. This could be a sloppy game with both teams leaning on their rushing attacks and defense, but take the Raiders to pull off the slight upset on the road.
Prediction: Raiders 22, Chargers 20
Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -6
Total: 42
This is one of the biggest lines of the week, with the Seattle Seahawks being 6-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in Seattle.
The Broncos are starting a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix against one of the league's smartest defensive minds: Mike Macdonald. Nix looked incredible in the preseason, but playing on the road in Seattle in Week 1 would be tough for any young quarterback.
Seattle’s offense should put up enough points to take care of business at home. One matchup to note here is DK Metcalf and Patrick Surtain II, which should be among the best individual matchups of the week. If the Broncos can manage to take away Metcalf, they'll have a chance to slow down Seattle's offense.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Broncos 20
Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -2.5
Total: 42
The Dallas Cowboys had the No. 1 scoring offense a year ago and will now take on the Browns, who finished No. 1 in yards allowed last season. For that reason alone, this game should be highly entertaining.
The big story here is Deshaun Watson, who will see the field for the first time since his shoulder injury. He did not play at all in the preseason, so it’s fair to expect him to look shaky out of the gate.
The good news for the Cleveland Browns is that they went 5-1 with Watson as the starter last year and have tailored the offense around him better this year. If Watson gets off to a strong start against one of the league's better defenses, that should really inspire confidence for the Browns moving forward.
This should be a hard-fought battle between two playoff teams from a year ago, but look for the Browns to take care of business at home in Week 1. Dallas is not the same team on the road, and this is a tough spot for them in the opening game of the year.
Score Prediction: Browns 23, Cowboys 20
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
Total: 43.5
One of the great parts about Week 1 is that you can always bet that several upsets will happen. These games, especially between non-divisional opponents, tend to be a bit random, and that can be a lot of fun.
The Washington Commanders had the second-worst record in the NFL last season, but a new quarterback (Jayden Daniels) and coach (Dan Quinn) have completely changed the vibe in Washington. The roster is still a long way from competing, but they will be a tough out for teams early in the season.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off another NFC South title and a playoff win against the Eagles. They should be in the playoffs again this season, but be cautious of them in this spot. We like the Commanders to pull off the upset in Week 1 in Tampa Bay.
Score Prediction: Commanders 24, Buccaneers 23
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions
Spread: Lions -3.5
Total: 51
This will arguably be the most fun game of the week, as the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions played a fantastic game in the wild-card round a year ago. The Rams have more questions on their roster than the Lions, but the combination of Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay has been highly successful in the last few years.
However, the Lions are the much better team and the stadium should be rocking on Sunday night. They were a fantastic home team last year, going 8-1 at Ford Field. Take the Lions to win and cover the spread in this big-game atmosphere on Sunday Night Football.
Score Prediction: Lions 27, Rams 23
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -4
Total: 43
The final game of Week 1 features Aaron Rodgers returning to the field against his old nemesis, the San Francisco 49ers. Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk signed contract extensions early enough in the week so that they would be ready for this primetime matchup, and they will surely want to get off to a strong start after their Super Bowl loss.
The good news for the New York Jets is that they have the type of roster that should keep this game competitive. They are built to stop the 49ers, as they have one of the top defensive lines in football. And with one of the league's best secondaries, they can go toe-to-toe with Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel.
Expect this to be a hard-hitting fight on Monday Night Football, but for last year's NFC champions to win.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Jets 19
Marcus Mosher
Marcus Mosher is an NFL writer and analyst with a decade of experience in podcasting and writing for various NFL websites, including Bleacher Report, Pro Football Focus and The Athletic. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. He is the host of the Locked On Cowboys Podcast and is a managing editor at USA Today Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. Marcus has been working full-time covering the NFL since 2015.
