Welcome to the Labor Day edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It's fitting that today is Labor Day, and that's mainly because I spent my entire weekend laboring over my predictions for the 2024 NFL season. I haven't slept in three days, my blood is now made of coffee and I've eaten 41 Pop-Tarts over the past 72 hours, and I have to say, it was all worth it because my predictions are now done.
Who's going to make the playoffs? Who's going to win the Super Bowl? Who's going to finish with the worst record in the NFL? We're going to answer all of that today.
We're also going to take a look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for each NFL team, plus we'll have an update on 49ers rookie wide receiver Ricky Pearsall.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do isclick here.
1. Details on shooting of Ricky Pearsall: 49ers rookie released from hospital after being shot in chest
Ricky Pearsall was released from a hospital in San Francisco on Sunday, less than 24 hours after being shot in the chest during a robbery attempt in the Union Square area.
Here's a breakdown of what happened over the weekend:
- Pearsall was shot in the chest.According to San Francisco police, the incident went down just after 3:30 p.m. PT on Saturday after a man tried to take a Rolex that Pearsall was wearing. During the attempted robbery, an altercation broke out between Pearsall and the 17-year-old suspect. By the time police arrived, both Pearsall and the suspect had been shot. The 49ers rookie had been in downtown San Francisco signing autographs just hours before the shooting. Despite being shot, Pearsall was able to walk to the ambulance on his own.
- Pearsall in the hospital for less than 24 hours. The 49ers first-round pick was shot in the chest with the bullet exiting out his back, according to a social media post from his mom. When Pearsall arrived at the hospital on Saturday, he was listed as being in "serious but stable condition." By Sunday morning, he was upgraded to fair condition and by early Sunday afternoon, he was discharged from the hospital. The bullet missed Pearsall's vital organs, according to the receiver's mom, who had posted an update on social media.
- Charges haven't been filed yet.The fact that the suspect is a juvenile and that fact that it's a holiday weekend has slowed down the legal process. District Attorney Brooke Jenkins noted over the weekend that a decision on charges will be made Tuesday or Wednesday.
If you want all the details on this situation, you can read our full story here.
2. Full AFC predictions for 2024: Bills miss playoffs for first time in six years
As I mentioned at the top, I spent my entire Labor Day weekend going through all 272 regular-season games on theNFL schedule, and after 37 straight hours of contemplating the 2023 season, my picks are finally in. In somewhat related news, I also spent 14 hours getting mentally prepared for all the hate mail I'm going to be getting from Buffalo.
Here's my prediction for how everything in the AFC will break down this year:
*make playoffs
AFC East
1. *Dolphins: 11-6
2. *Jets: 10-7
3. Bills: 9-8
4. Patriots: 3-14
AFC North
1. *Ravens: 12-5
2. *Bengals: 11-6
3. Browns: 9-8
4. Steelers: 8-9
AFC South
1. *Texans: 10-7
2. Jaguars: 8-9
3. Colts: 7-10
4. Titans: 6-11
AFC West
1. *Chiefs: 12-5
2. *Chargers: 10-7
3. Broncos: 7-10
4. Raiders: 6-11
AFC playoffs:1. Chiefs 2. Ravens 3. Dolphins 4. Texans 5. Bengals 6. Chargers 7. Jets
AFC Super Bowl team:Bengals
I took the Bengals last year and that turned out to be an instant jinx -- Joe Burrow injured his calf five seconds into his first training camp practice -- but I'm picking them again because there's no way you can jinx a team two years in a row. Right. Right?!
3. Full NFC predictions for 2024: Rams earn top seed in conference
In the NFC, I see things ending with Matthew Stafford facing the Lions with a TRIP TO THE SUPER BOWL on the line.
Here's my prediction for how everything in the NFC will shake out this year:
*make playoffs
NFC East
1. *Cowboys: 10-7
2. *Eagles: 9-8
3. Commanders: 7-10
4. Giants: 6-11
NFC North
1. *Lions: 12-5
2. *Packers: 11-6
3. Bears: 8-9
4. Vikings: 6-11
NFC South
1. *Falcons: 10-7
2. Buccaneers: 8-9
3. Saints: 6-11
4. Panthers: 4-13
NFC West
1. *Rams: 12-5
2. *49ers: 11-6
3. Seahawks: 7-10
4. Cardinals: 6-11
NFC playoffs:1. Rams 2. Lions 3. Cowboys 4. Falcons 5. 49ers 6. Packers 7. Eagles
NFC Super Bowl team:Lions
Super Bowl winner:Bengals 27-24 over Lions
The Lions have one of the best rosters in the NFL and they got over their biggest hump last year by winning a playoff game for the first time since 1991. Now that they've gotten that out of the way, this feels like a team that's ready to take the next step, and the next step is getting to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.
The problem for the Lions, though, is that if there's one guy you don't want to face in New Orleans, it's Joe Burrow. Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase won a college national title at the SuperDome, and now, they're going to team up to win a Super Bowl.
This matchup would give us the NFL's first Super Bowl involving two cat teams and I'm not sure how anyone can root against that. Everyone loves cats.
Besides predicting the Super Bowl winner and the final records for each team, I also made nine bold predictions about the 2024 NFL season, including a dark horse MVP winner, and you can check out all of those by clicking here.
4. Ceiling and floor for each NFL team
If you're wondering what the best-case scenario is for your favorite team this year, I have some good news: Jeff Kerr went ahead and figured that out for you. With the start of the season just three days away, Kerr went through every team to figure out their best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2024 season.
Here's a look at how he sees things going for five different teams:
FALCONS
Best case:11-6 (Win NFC South)
Worst case:8-9 (Miss playoffs)
COWBOYS
Best case:12-5 (Reach NFC title game)
Worst case:9-8 (Miss playoffs)
TEXANS
Best case:13-4 (Reach AFC title game)
Worst case:8-9 (Miss playoffs)
CHARGERS
Best case:10-7 (Make playoffs)
Worst case:7-10 (Miss playoffs)
PATRIOTS
Best case:6-11 (Miss playoffs)
Worst case:2-15 (Miss playoffs)
Kerr clearly thinks the Patriots are going to be terrible and it's hard to disagree with him. At 6-11, the Patriots' best-case scenario is tied with the Panthers and Broncos for the worst ceiling in the league.
If you want to know the ceiling and floor for every NFL team, then be sure to click here.
5. 10 offensive players in the perfect situation to thrive in 2024
If you have a Fantasy draft coming up in the next 72 hours, you're definitely going to want to pay attention to this section of the newsletter. Garrett Podell made a list of 10 offensive players who could put up big numbers this year due to the fact that they're in the perfect situation to thrive.
Let's check out the top four names on his list:
- Packer QB Jordan Love."The crazy thing about Love's first season at the controls of head coach Matt LaFleur's offense is he really didn't start clicking until the second half of the season when he threw 18 touchdowns and only one interception from Weeks 11-18. He can easily take his game up another level."
- Falcons RB Bijan Robinson. "Robinson produced a strong rookie season with 1,463 scrimmage yards, the second most among rookies in Falcons history. He can be even better in 2024 with a quarterback defenses have to respect in four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins, someone who, unlike Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, will prevent defenses from selling out and loading the box to stop the run."
- Ravens RB Derrick Henry."Henry has been a top-two leader across the NFL in rushing yards and carries in carries and rushing yards in four of the last five seasons, which makes him just the 10th player in league history to end up in the top two in the league in rushing yards four or more times. ... Now that he's in Baltimore, Henry's efficiency could dramatically improve in 2024. He still produced a solid impact in 2023 with rookie Will Levis initially struggling to connect in the NFL as he averaged the worst completion percentage in professional football (58.4%). Lining up next to 2023 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson should remove the metaphorical weight around Henry's ankles and free him up for a much more efficient 2024."
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin."McLaurin is an underrated wide receiver: He is one of six players with 900 or more receiving yards in each of his five seasons, joining Mike Evans, A.J. Green, Randy Moss and Jerry Rice. The crazy part about that stat is the best quarterback McLaurin has played with is probably Alex Smith. That all changes in 2024 with second overall pick quarterback Jayden Daniels."
If you want to see the rest of Garrett's list, be sure to click here.
6. Extra points: Bill Cowher hates one part of the new kickoff rule
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Cowher wants to see one change in new kickoff rule. With the new kickoff rule in place, teams are no longer able to attempt surprise onside kicks and it seems that's the one thing that the former Steelers coach doesn't like about the new rule. Cowher spent some time talking with us about the new kickoff rule, and you can check out his full interview here.
- Caleb Williams voted a captain. The Bears rookie quarterback was officially voted a team captain on Monday, which tells you how much the rest of the team already respects him, even though he has yet to play a single down.
- CEH to miss at least first four games. The Chiefs have placed Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the reserve/non-football illness list, which means he now has to miss the first four games of the season when K.C. will face the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons and Chargers. Edwards-Helaire will be eligible to return for K.C.'s Week 5 game against the Saints on Oct. 7.
- Rams hire Scott Frost. The former Nebraska head coach is joining the Rams coaching staff as a senior football analyst. Frost coached the Huskers from 2018 thru September 2022 before getting fired after going 16-31. You don't usually see teams add to their coaching staff less than a week before the start of the season, so this certainly qualifies as an interesting hire for Sean McVay.
- Dicker gets huge extension from Chargers. Dicker hit 93.9% of his field goals last year and the Chargers have rewarded him by giving the kicker a four-year, $22.04 million extension, which includes $12.5 million in guaranteed money. With the new deal paying him an average of $5.51 million per year, Dicker is now the fifth-highest paid kicker in the NFL.
- X banned in Brazil.The social media set formerly known as Twitter has been banned in Brazil. The only reason we're mentioning that here is because there's an NFL game being played in Brazil on Friday (Packers vs. Eagles). If X doesn't get reinstated in the next few days, no one -- from reporters to NFL teams -- will be permitted to tweet from the game.
